Egypt's Precarious Balancing Act

December 12, 2016 (Ulson Gunnar - NEO) - In 2011, the United States successfully overthrew the government of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak amid the regional so-called Arab Spring. In place of President Mubarak's government, rose the Muslim Brotherhood, a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) backed political front that has served their, and their Western sponsors' interests for nearly a century post-Ottoman Empire.

The Muslim Brotherhood was also instrumental in setting the stage for destabilization and eventually war in Syria.

To no one's surprise then, under the post-Arab Spring government led by the Muslim Brotherhood's President Mohamed Morsi, Egypt immediately severed ties with allies including Syria, and immediately backed US-GCC regional projects including the overthrow of the Syrian government.

In 2013, amid widespread street protests against the government, a military coup spearheaded by Egyptian army chief General Abedl Fattah el-Sisi, ousted President Morsi. In addition to a nationwide effort to liquidate the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's new government immediately restored ties with the legitimate government of Syria.

The Balancing Act Begins 

Egypt's economy depends almost equally on trade between Europe and the Middle Eastern and North African region (MENA) and to a lesser extent, Asia and North America. It has also become heavily dependent on foreign aid. Until recently, it had depended on tens of billions of dollars from the GCC, and more specifically, Saudi Arabia.

This aid did not come for free. Egypt was expected to back the GCC's (and in turn, Washington's) regional projects including the overthrow of the Syrian government as well as participation in Riyadh's war in Yemen.

But as President Sisi liquidated the Muslim Brotherhood and gradually shifted Egypt's support back behind Syria as well as withdrawing Egypt's symbolic military forces from the Yemeni conflict, Riyadh gradually closed off foreign aid.

Egypt now finds itself dependent on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and facing a similar "carrot and stick" dilemma.


To bolster Cairo's leverage against its Western and Arab creditors, it has attempted to seek closer ties with Russia. This includes several arms deals, improving economic trade and even joint military exercises between the two nations.

Perhaps more importantly than the dollar and cent values of these deals is the geopolitical impact of the most populous Arab nation providing increased political support for Russia as it carries out joint operations with Damascus in nearby Syria.

While Egypt struggles economically, it still remains a potentially potent military power in the region. Analysts have observed that Cairo's geopolitical and strategic contributions, even in limited supply, could help tilt the balance more decisively in Moscow and Damascus' favor, rewriting the entire region's balance of power. Even the prospective ability to do this could be enough to give Egypt breathing room to reestablish itself after its long, post-Arab Spring struggle.

Lingering Threats 

The Muslim Brotherhood still remains a threat in Egypt. Its US-GCC support lies beyond Egypt's borders and constantly threatens to exploit any misstep Cairo might make. Such missteps are eagerly encouraged by the IMF, which has imposed difficult preconditions on Cairo in order to receive much needed aid. Additional taxes and the raising of energy prices provide the perfect pretext for foreign-backed opposition groups to take to the streets, creating once again the chaos that invited violence and turmoil in Egypt in 2011, and to a greater extent in neighboring Libya and nearby Syria.

Egypt's ability to stave off political instability while establishing a sustainable economy and suitable socioeconomic conditions will be key to preventing another upheaval in this immense, pivotal MENA state. Cairo is very likely aware of just how precarious its balancing act has become. Those nations that seek to make its crossing of this latest chasm easier will likely not only play a significant role in sharing Cairo's future prosperity, but also benefit from the regional influence it will be able to project.

Ulson Gunnar, a New York-based geopolitical analyst and writer especially for the online magazine �New Eastern Outlook�. 

Could Egyptian Support Tip the Balance in Syria's Favor?

December 2, 2016 (Jean P�rier - NEO) - In recent days, a number of Arab media sources have begun speaking about Egypt�s growing involvement in the Syrian war. In particular, with special reference to the Lebanese agency As-Safir, a number of Arab media outlets reported that Egypt is allegedly sending troops to provide assistance to Damascus. Moreover, we are being told now that Egyptian pilots are already flying sorties in Hama, Syrian. In particular, it has been stated that Egyptian jets and cargo planes have been deployed to the province of Hama, and while fighters are bombing ISIS (the Islamic State), Egyptian transport planes are helping the Syrian army rapidly redeploy supplies and personnel.

At the same time, the Egyptian Foreign Ministry�s official spokesperson, Ahmad Abu Zeid, denied this information and told reporters of the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida that this information is false, since the doctrine of the High Command of the Egyptian state and its policies are based on the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states.

However, analysts say that Egypt has every reason to join the Syrian war on the side of Syria�s President Bashar al-Assad.

Just recently, the Egyptian and Syrian governments resumed diplomatic contacts that were brought to a screeching halt in 2012, when toppled Egyptian President Mohammed Morsi was sentenced to 20 years in prison.

In late October , Cairo officially joined the group of states that are seeking ways to pursue reconciliation in Syria within the Vienna framework. In particular, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called Secretary of state John Kerry to involve the Egyptian delegation in peace talks. Syrian media sources have been vocal recently about the new security cooperation agreement that Cairo and Damascus just signed during the visit of the Syrian National Security Bureau chief, Ali Mamlouk, to Cairo.

Earlier, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi expressed support for his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad. In an interview with Portuguese television RTP, President al-Sisi called the current Syrian government consistent in its the fight against terrorism in Syria and restoring stability in the strife-torn country.

One must note that Egypt�s position regarding Syria is quite understandable and justified, since Egypt in recent years has faced security challenges presented by terrorism almost identical to those that are arrayed against the Syrian government and its people. Egypt�s territory remains infiltrated by members of the so-called Muslim Brotherhood movement, whose members are forming new militant sleeper cells every month, and carrying out regular terrorist attacks. Moreover, along Egypt�s western borders lies the collapsed state of Libya, where various gangs and terrorist groups work hard to destabilize the situation both within the country and across the region. To the east is the Sinai, where a bloody face-off with the Wilayat Sinai continues claiming human lives.

In November, Egypt intensified contacts with one of the most active allies of Damascus � Iran, with which it maintained somewhat strained relations with after the military coup in Egypt that brought down President Morsi, which among other offenses, was accused of spying for Iran. According to a number of unconfirmed reports, Egyptian oil minister Tariq al-Mulla made a very unusual trip to Iran, which was considered a longtime enemy of Egypt.

At the same time, it is noted that Egypt�s relations with Saudi Arabia and Qatar are rapidly deteriorating, since Cairo suspects the latter to be financing terrorism in Sinai. This encourages Egypt�s foreign policy to establish contacts with opponents of Riyadh. However, such a shift in Egypt�s foreign policy has already caused outrage across media outlets of Persian Gulf controlled media sources, which were directly supported by the French agency AFP.

The reactionary monarchies, just like France and a number of the White House's allies in Europe, are fully aware of the fact that Egypt�s involvement in the Syrian war on the side of Bashar al-Assad can change the strategic balance in favor of Syria in a pivotal way, which was clearly not planned by the US nor its geopolitical proxies.

Jean P�rier is an independent researcher and analyst and a renowned expert on the Near and Middle East, exclusively for the online magazine �New Eastern Outlook�